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Review of the Wexford constituency by Adrian Kavanagh

By admin ~ February 23rd, 2011 @ 3:54 pm No Comments »

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Dr. Adrian Kavanagh is based in the Geography Department of the National University of Ireland, Maynooth. Over the next few days and weeks I am going to briefly review each of the forty-three Dáil constituencies and  I will relate these to what the December 2010 Newstalk prediction survey says about the different constituencies and how these tally with the general trends observed in my more recent opinion poll analyses on www.politicalreform.ie – these views will of course be influenced by party’s candidate selections with up-to-date news about these available from the Irish General Election Facts and Figures blog (http//geographyspecialinterestgroup.wordpress.com/) Wexford (5-seats) This constituency has traditionally elected two Fianna Fáil candidates, two Fine Gael candidates and one Labour candidate over the past few decades with few exceptions, but there are fears within Fianna Fáil ranks that the party could be down to one, or even no seat, here. Former TD Liam Twomey could be in running to take a third Fine Gael seat here, while the Fianna Fáil incumbents (John Browne and Sean Connick) face intense local opposition from Labour’s Pat Cody and colourful independent, Mick Wallace, respectively. Howlin, D’Arcy and Kehoe should be safe, after that the seats could fall to any two out of the five aforementioned candidates. The order of eliminations and vote transfers will prove crucial here. Connick might just have enough local support in his New Ross base to edge out Wallace and Twomey for the south-western/southern Wexford seat, especially if he is in a position to avail of Browne transfers should the Gilmore Gale blow a second Labour seat, and also the second Enniscorthy seat,  the way of Cody.  Labour gain and Fianna Fáil loss – Connick FF, D’Arcy FG, Kehoe FG, Howlin LB, Cody LB. Potential surprise package Anthony Kelly, Seamus O’Brien and John Dwyer offer a range of options on the left of the Wexford political spectrum and it will be interesting to see if one of these candidates can emerge to make a significant impact in this election.  More about Adrian Kavanagh Anthony Kelly Europe Fianna Fáil Fine Gael General Election Geography Department http Irish general election John Browne John Dwyer Labor Liam Twomey Mick Wallace National University of Ireland Pat Cody politics Sean Connick www.politicalreform.ie. .

FF rebel Mattie gets locals to sing from same hymn sheet with record

By admin ~ February 23rd, 2011 @ 3:52 pm No Comments »

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“YOU’VE all been telling lies!” said the man. “I never told a lie in my life,” replied Mattie McGrath, the Fianna Fail rebel now running as an Independent in Tipperary South-West Waterford. The man, who didn’t want to be named, was the first and only angry voter Mattie met yesterday while canvassing in Cahir, Co Tipperary. Mattie is loved in Cahir, the town just miles from his home and where he went to school. “If you’re to get the vote from me, I want no more bull****,” continued the man. As this exchange was going on, one of Mattie’s vans did a lap of the town square, with a recorded message from Mattie belting from loudspeakers attached to the roof. “I need your number one,” the message blasted. “If you re-elect me, I will continue getting the work done for the people of Tipperary-West Waterford.” The loudspeaker also plays a few tunes from Mattie’s new election CD, ‘The Man in the Van’ (or ‘Now That’s What I Call Mattie 2011′, since he had one for the last election too). It includes such tracks as the techno-dance music tune ‘Rise and Follow Mattie’ and the more traditional ‘Working till Morning’, which the sleeve notes say was written “in appreciation of Mattie’s hard work”.

The final track — ‘Our Guy, Your Guy, Mattie McGrath’ — has a reel at the end of it “as a mark of respect for Mattie as he chisels persistently at all issues and policies in need of change”. The CD, Mattie tells us, only costs a few bob, and all proceeds go to charities for the blind. One of the musicians on the CD, Stefan, is visually impaired. Meanwhile, at the side of the square, the spat continues. “You were all jumping ship like rats,” says the man.

Mattie throws a curveball. “How’s your mother?” he asks. “Ah, she’s alright . . . ah, hang on, there’s no point in asking how my mother is.” The man moves on to Mary Harney, and Mattie points out that he’s been “fighting Mary Harney for four years”.

“And those pensions are too much. Your wages should be cut. There should be a constitutional referendum.” And then Mattie takes a handful of cue cards and a pen from his pocket, as if he is about to take down a complaint about a broken streetlight or pothole. “Now,” says Mattie, scribbling on the card.

“I’m just writing it down here about the constitutional referendum.” And he jots down “constitutional referendum” before putting the card back in his pocket. The man then tells how his mother is upset after a letter from the local Fine Gael TD, Tom Hayes, arrived through the door addressed to his father, even though the father died five years ago. “Ah, that’s very careless,” tuts Mattie, who’s quickly off, shaking more hands and handing out more leaflets. It’s a cold, blustery day in Cahir but Mattie is well received by almost everyone. He’s wearing a baseball hat with ‘Vote Mattie Number One’ written on it. Everyone knows him and everyone has a word — even a pack of 20-somethings who drive by in a stretch Hummer give him a cheer. Mattie McGrath — rock star.

Well, he does have his own CD. Confident On the way out of the Punter’s Rest pub, a man shouts “Mattie, I want to thank you for sending Seanie Lanigan up to fix the lights for me.” A Shane Ross-style Independent Mattie ain’t. But some voters are focused on the national picture. “You can’t be jumping ship the way you did with Fianna Fail,” says shopkeeper Patrick O’Donovan. Mattie says he’s confident of holding his seat. He visits the local enterprise centre and prompts Helen Quirke, who works there, to “tell him about my colleague, my former colleague”. She tells how the centre wrote to local FF TD Martin Mansergh in December 2009, asking for help. He never got back to them, but appeared in the centre a few weeks ago, where the issue was brought up with him. “He said, ‘Oh you got that sorted’,” Ms Quirke said. “And we said, ‘yeah, Mattie sorted it’.” Poor Martin, he doesn’t really stand a chance. Irish Independent

Greens criticise greedy independents

By admin ~ February 23rd, 2011 @ 3:52 pm No Comments »

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John Gormley, leader of the Green Party, has criticised the disproportionate influence of some independent politicians in Irish politics. He singled out Jackie Healy-Rae (whose son will be contesting this election) and Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry for particular criticism. He believes that the last thing the country needs in its current crisis is for individual politicians to control the balance of power. “We don’t need a government that must constantly look over its shoulder to ensure that independents, with their range of interests, are being ‘looked after’,” Gormley said. “The Green Party is the only party contesting this election that has not been tainted by auction politics and bad decision-making over the last 20 years, and which has real experience of making difficult decisions in government. “We don’t have to look too far for evidence we’ve had ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry pushing for his Las Vegas-style casino in Tipperary and we’ve had Jackie Healy-Rae irresponsibly holding the country to ransom during our economic crisis. “We were very clear about that dealing with the likes of Michael Lowry. I said to Minister Lenihan at the time – there is no way we can entertain a casino.“You can’t pander to this sort of very, very narrow interest and unhealthy interests. It’s just not good for the country.

“If people want the next government to have a strong mandate for the tough challenges ahead, there would seem to be no benefit from having to pander to a dozen or more independents.”

Ó’Cuív name change ensures he’s moving on up the ballot paper

By admin ~ February 23rd, 2011 @ 3:52 pm No Comments »

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CIAN NIHILL ’s sideways look at Election 2011 Ó’Cuív name change ensures he’s moving on up the ballot paper  WHILE FIANNA Fáil may have gone down in the opinion polls since the last election, one of its outgoing ministers is rapidly rising up the ballot paper. Eamon Ó Cuív has dropped the Ó prefix from the spelling of his name on the ballot paper, moving him close to the top of the list which is done alphabetically. Mr Ó Cuív told journalist John Fallon that he had established the correct use of his surname in a previous Circuit Court case and that he was not trying to secure an advantage in the election. Mr Ó Cuív’s decision not to use the prefix moves his name from fourth bottom to fourth from the top on the ballot paper in Galway West. Would his party Fianna Fáil possibly consider a name change in return for such a move up the polls? UNFORTUNATE HEADLINE OF THE DAY FINE GAEL PRESS OFFICE  “Pensions and penioners will be protected under FG”   An interesting heading to a press release from a party whose leader had to recently forgo a controversial teacher’s pension Fine Gael hopeful a hot contender while Miriam gets taoiseach nod  THE YOUTH have spoken and the votes are in, Catherine Yore in the Meath West constituency is the “hottest” candidate in the general election. The Fine Gael hopeful secured 42 per cent of a nationwide alternative opinion poll run by bookmakers Ladbrokes, which asked 18 to 25 year olds to choose between candidates based on “who was the hottest”. Ms Yore, finished comfortably ahead of Fianna Fáil’s candidate in Louth, James Carroll, who won 27 per cent of the vote. The poll also asked approximately 200 young people to choose between possible “celebrity” taoisigh with RTÉ presenter Miriam O’Callaghan emerging victorious. ELECTION ONLINE THE BEST BITS FROM YOUTUBE  Clearly Michael Lowry has gone above and beyond the call of duty in securing the young vote in Tipperary North.

He has this toddler’s vote – if she had one of course. http//tinyurl.com/6krs3ks Did you know the digital revolution has begun? Well in case you didn’t, Fine Gael is letting us know that it has. Democracy 2.0 is what they call it in this up-tempo campaign video.http//tinyurl.com/6d3e8ow Another election spat for TV3  TV3 HAS found itself at the centre of another election-related spat – this time involving Fianna Fáil and political editor Ursula Halligan. Following Halligan’s interview with Enda Kenny on Vincent Browne (Mr Kenny had said he will not be interviewed by Browne) a Fianna Fáil statement suggested that TV3 had agreed not to ask the Fine Gael leader about his pension arrangements. The party retracted its statement later yesterday after assurances from the broadcaster it would never agree to such preconditions. The Fianna Fáil statement said “If our inquiries about Fine Gaels tactics created any question mark over Ms Halligan’s independence or professionalism, we apologise to her and her team at TV3.”.

Further Reading

Review of the Wexford constituency by Adrian Kavanagh

FF rebel Mattie gets locals to sing from same hymn sheet with record

Greens criticise greedy independents

Ó’Cuív name change ensures he’s moving on up the ballot paper

FG’s pledge to build new hospital in five years

FG denies preconditions for Kenny interview

“There’s one thing I’ll ask of you. Fight for our young people”

Proportional representation: what it is and how it works

Whelan’s canvass is a labour of love

Decision time…