Ireland Election News

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The streets that once belonged to Ahern’s Drumcondra Mafia are now up for grabs. Those grappling for control are a varied bunch, ranging from the ex-Taoiseach’s understudy, Cyprian Brady, to a potential face of Fine Gael’s future, Senator Paschal Donohoe. As a constituency that once enjoyed the glitz and glamour of Bertie Ahern showmanship, it is now scarred by his legacy. It’s not surprising that the Ahern dynasty has had its arm twisted by Fianna Fail HQ into allowing his constituency rival, Mary Fitzpatrick, on to the ticket. She outscored Brady on first preferences in the 2007, despite being “shafted” by Ahern. Brady received less than 3pc of the vote but was carried across the line by transfers from Ahern, who had nearly two quotas. Revenge However, if revenge is a dish best served, then Fitzpatrick’s has been in the freezer ever since. She triumphed in the local elections and is now the party’s number one candidate in the constituency.

However she still faces an uphill battle. The only certainty here appears to be that Labour’s Joe Costello will top the poll and Fine Gael will retake a seat for this first time since Jim Mitchell lost in 2002. Enda Kenny handed responsibility for recovering the party’s standing in the area to Paschal Donohoe as far back as 2002. He was hugely disappointed to miss out in the 2009 by-election but the profile he gained from that will benefit him now. With those two safely through, the battle will begin between Independents, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald. Maureen O’Sullivan won the seat left behind by her friend Tony Gregory in the 2009 by-election but has had a relatively quiet time in Leinster House since. She is one of six independents running in the constituency.

However she could lose significant votes to Christy Burke, who was also close to Tony Gregory. The ex-Sinn Fein councillor will also hope to pull some of Mary Lou McDonald’s votes. On a non-disastrous day for Fianna Fail, Fitzpatrick could make her long-awaited breakthrough, otherwise McDonald will be fighting with Labour’s Aine Clancy for the final seat. All this could result in a nail-biting finish for the final two seats between O’Sullivan, McDonald, Fitzpatrick and Clancy. PREDICTION Costello (Lab), Donohoe (FG), O’Sullivan (Ind) and McDonald (SF). .

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STEVEN CARROLL THE ‘GREY VOTE’ Pensions, social welfare and forced emigration among the concerns of older voters at one inner-city day centre REGULAR VISITORS to the Lourdes Day Centre on Seán McDermott Street in Dublin’s north inner city have lived through their fair share of general election campaigns. At a meeting last week they recalled deals struck by Tony Gregory for their Dublin Central constituency and days when former taoiseach Bertie Ahern was finding his feet in politics. But things have changed in the constituency since 2007. Gregory has passed away, Ahern has retired and Fianna Fáil in Dublin Central, where the party won 45 per cent of first preferences last time, is reportedly struggling. Ahead of the election, members of the group are concerned about what a new government could mean for their pensions, the possibility social welfare might be cut further and that limited job prospects are forcing younger generations to emigrate. “My grandniece had to move to Australia with her boyfriend. It’s disgraceful,” said Margaret Foley from Brendan Behan Court. Group members are unsure if any party, or coalition, can put right the issues facing the State but one thing is certain, they will exercise their right to vote. “It’s our duty to vote and get on with it,” Ms Foley said.

“We’ll just have to wait and see what comes of it.” The “grey vote” will undoubtedly be a force in deciding the outcome of the election here and across the country. Some 470,000 people, or 17 per cent of the electorate, are aged over 65. The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll show that, at 29 per cent, over 65s remain nearly twice as likely to vote for Fianna Fáil. But even in this one-time party stronghold opinion is divided. “I’m a third-generation Fianna Fáil voter,” said group member Maggie Fagan. “They know how to run the country.

I think we would be in an even worse state .” Others say they have sympathy for Brian Cowen, given the circumstances he inherited. “As far as I’m concerned Brian Cowen walked straight into it,” said Pat McDermott from Pearse Street. “The damage was done when Bertie was there.” But is Ahern still popular in this former heartland? “He was until he did the dirty,” said Bridie Byrne from Rutland Place. “He knew what he’d done and he moved on .

. . The Fianna Fáil vote is finished for us now. They’re good promisers but bad fulfillers.” Across the country in Ballina, Co Mayo, Loretta Clarke has entered the election race as an Independent candidate at the age of 75. Ms Clarke said the concerns of older people were poorly represented nationally and that she would like to see a TD representing the State’s ageing population in every constituency. Eamon Timmins of Age Action said plans for the care of older people have not been a feature of the campaign and that an examination of manifestos shows some comments made publicly did not feature in the documents. Friends of the Elderly spokesman Dermot Kirwan said those engaging with the charity are concerned about further “stealthy cuts” to care packages, grants, pensions and transport.

However, he said the single greatest concern emerging was that “history is repeating itself” and people who said goodbye to emigrating friends and relatives in the 1950s and 1980s are being forced to do it all over again. Back in Dublin, Seán Whelan (79), a Friends of the Elderly volunteer and retired aircraft maintenance worker from Kells, Co Meath, said emigration and the kind of future that would be on offer to his grandchildren were his primary electoral concerns. A long-time Labour supporter, Mr Whelan said that regardless of who formed it, the next government faced a difficult task. “I can’t see any real improvement in the next five years and I don’t see us getting back to where we were before the economy was mismanaged,” he said..

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Fine Gael hope to bring high tech jobs to aid economic recovery Fine Gael have outlined provisions in their Five Point Plan to support the high tech jobs sector in Ireland. This is so the sector can play a leading role in Ireland’s economic recovery, according to Fine Gael Leader, Enda Kenny and Dublin Central Candidate Paschal Donohoe. Enda Kenny was speaking today as Fine Gael announced plans to provide extra tax relief for R&D spending, accelerate capital allowances on software purchases against other income and corporation tax profits from eight years to three years and ensuring that all government department and agency payments are made electronically. Paschal Donohoe said that growth potential in the gaming industry is huge and that, under Fine Gael plans, Ireland is well positioned to capitalise on this market. Speaking at Popcap Games on Pearse St, Enda Kenny also explained how Fine Gael, if elected to government, would implement specific policies to support the gaming industry. “The high tech sector of the Irish economy can help lead us out of recession. It can create new jobs in high value added areas and offer hope for some of our best and brightest young people who otherwise might end up emigrating,” Mr Kenny explained.

“If we do not invest today in the industries and sectors of our economy that can provide jobs and growth for the next 5, 10 or 20 years we are failing in our duty. Failing to plan and failing to be ready for the international challenges that lie ahead,” Mr Kenny continued. Paschal Donohoe added “The potential for Ireland is huge. I believe, under Fine Gael plans, Ireland is well placed to capitalise on this market, bringing high tech jobs and investment into the country.”

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AS I pulled up outside the Navan Road school, I was impressed to see that Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick had observed the first rule for any candidate be visible. There she was, in bright orange jacket, strawberry blonde hair flying in the wind, giving instructions to her small band of canvassers two local ladies; one young man; and her dad — former councillor, senator and TD for Dublin Central, Dermot Fitzpatrick. I arranged to go out on the hustings in my old stomping ground of Dublin Central with the new spokeswoman on Housing and Urban Development, to see if her appointment had made any impact on the doorsteps. Our first port of call was canvassing parents as they collected their children from school. I stood back to observe the reaction of people as they walked away after having been canvassed by herself and her team. It’s early in the election, so the electorate aren’t yet sick of being accosted in the street and at their doors and are still polite, at least to the candidate’s face. But there is no doubt that when the element of surprise at the approach by this good-looking, articulate woman had worn off and they had a chance to look at her literature, the realisation that she was standing for Fianna Fail did provoke an adverse reaction among some as they chatted to their buddies. I was a little disappointed to find no stickers available to give to wide-eyed kids who, lucky for them, haven’t a clue what’s going on but love plastering themselves and their belongings in stickers from any party.

Of course, the added benefit to a candidate is having their name plastered all over the child’s house, keeping that name alive in the parents’ mind. That reminder could possibly be the difference between receiving a preference vote or not. Even a 10th preference becomes a number one on the 10th count. Next up was Dunmanus Court, a senior citizens’ complex in the heart of Cabra. It was lashing rain, and Mary had decided that the structure of the complex would provide some shelter for the canvassers as they worked. I sincerely hope her people get themselves some decent rain gear. This is a winter election, and an aversion to getting wet will not be conducive to comprehensively canvassing a constituency comprising 30,000 dwellings. She moved slowly through the complex, spending time with each person at the door.

The reaction here was positive. People knew her, liked her, and congratulated her on her appointment. From what I could gather, she had worked the area well and was respected for it. I hadn’t realised how deeply embedded was my own instinct to canvass.

On one occasion, when an elderly lady had taken a long time to answer the door, the canvasser had moved on and the resident opened the door to an empty doorstep. What did I do? I just couldn’t help myself. The urge to canvass was just too great. I canvassed her. Constituent, candidate, canvass I’m programmed.

As we shifted to the neatly kept houses of Mulroy Road, the extent of the uphill battle for FF became apparent. People are angry and worried. Those working are angry at the reduction in take-home pay. Those on benefits are angry at the cut in their money. But above all, people are worried and frightened by the loss of employment prospects for themselves and their families.

The electorate are, however, extremely politically astute. “Mary’s a lovely girl, it’s a pity she’s FF,” one woman told me. The anger at FF is deep and visceral. But there is also a realisation that, no matter who is in power, the financial hardship will continue. As a result, this campaign is different to any of the campaigns I’ve been involved in, down the years. Right now, people want answers. They want to know exactly what the parties are offering and they know there is very little room for manoeuvre. This is definitely not an election of promises. Dublin Central is a four- seater constituency with a diverse socio-economic spread and an impressive line-up of candidates. There seems little doubt that Joe Costello of Labour will top the poll, followed by Fine Gael’s Pascal Donohue. The third seat will go to Maureen O’Sullivan, independent, winner of the by-election in 2009 and former member of Tony G

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The party’s TD for Dublin South Centra,l Angus O’Snodaigh, said that the party would fund the generous proposals by introducing a new third rate of taxation for higher earners. “Those people who have additional wealth would be taxed,” the South Dublin Central TD explained, ” Our tax policy includes a wealth tax and a third band of tax of 48% on monies earned over €100,000…That is the way you tackle the inequality,” he said. Meanwhile the Daily Mail today revealed that Sinn Fein’s Dundalk-based election office headquarters is in fact owned by a convicted cross-border smuggler. Adams, who this summer wrote an exclusive opinion piece on Cork Student News highlighting young peoples’ disconnect from Irish politics, denied knowing who the owner of the office space was in an interview with the Daily Mail

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Voters insisted it was high time Bertie’s faction was cut down to size THE shadows of two Fianna Fail Taoisigh filtered across the campaign trail yesterday. The first was to be expected, since the canvass took place in Bertie Ahern’s constituency, but the second was more surprising. Eamon de Valera was resurrected — briefly but reverently — as two householders shared their memories of him, while Fianna Fail candidate Mary Fitzpatrick pounded the beat in Dublin Central. “My father played football with de Valera,” said 80-year-old retired civil servant Cait Connors. “He met him in Mayo when Dev was at Irish College there, learning the language. My father remembered him as very down to earth — he didn’t say what he was like at football, though.” Out of deference to Dev, she’d carry on voting FF. On the other side of the Cabra street, a neighbour told how his late father-in-law had been one of Dev’s bodyguards. But he was able to reach back beyond Fianna Fail’s iconic leader to Padraig Pearse, because his father’s family lived next door to the Pearses. “Willie Pearse, Padraig’s brother, used to walk my father to school in the morning,” recalled the man, who asked not to be named.

“The Pearses were wonderful people. There’ll be two votes in this house for you, Mary,” he promised. The mood darkened when Bertie Ahern’s name was cited. A number of voters insisted it was high time the Drumcondra mafia — Bertie’s faction — was cut down to size, and complained about the shabby way Mary was treated in the 2007 General Election. Controversially, a letter from Bertie’s office was hand-delivered to voters on election morning, urging them to give their transfers to Cyprian Brady — with no mention of Mary. The mother-of-three won twice as many first preferences as Brady, but was squeezed out of a seat by the Ahern machine. Is Bertie being more even-handed in the current election, I wondered? “If you’re asking if Bertie and the boys are out knocking on doors for me now, the answer is no,” Mary said forthrightly.

She is frank in all the answers she gives. “Fianna Fail is going into opposition, there is no doubt about that,” she tells householders over and over. “But it’s important to have a good opposition.” “I never had any time for the mafia set in Drumcondra, and now they’ve had their day,” said Niall Murphy. “I didn’t like the way Mary was treated by them. A lot of people round here feel that way.” “What they did to her was wrong,” agreed Mary Connolly in another street.

“Bertie can ask all he likes, but Mary Fitzpatrick is getting my number one.” Bertie, who is retiring from the Dail, has been campaigning again for Brady. But he hasn’t offered his help to Dublin City councillor Mary. Mary’s father, retired Fianna Fail TD Dermot Fitzpatrick, was on the stump with her. A GP who spent 15 years in the Dail, he admitted he wasn’t surprised by his former running mate Bertie’s behaviour.

“I’d know the way Bertie operates. He has intense loyalty to a very small group around him. Cyprian Brady is part of that group and my daughter isn’t. So Bertie went all out to get him elected in 2007 and he’s canvassing for him again.” Since this was a day for resurrecting former Fianna Fail taoisigh, we touched on Charlie Haughey. Dr Fitzpatrick said whatever you thought about Haughey, you couldn’t deny his devastating charm.

“Grown men crumbled in the face of it.” As for his daughter, the best advice he could give her was to keep knocking on doors. Former Fianna Fail voter Ann Sheehan said she was switching to Sinn Finn, and there were probably five Sinn Fein votes in her family. “All the parties are promising us the sun, moon and stars as usual. I never voted for Sinn Fein before, but I think it’s time to give them a chance and see what they can do.” “This is typical of what I’m up against,” Mary, a marketing consultant who worked in London and New York, acknowledged afterwards. “I’m probably fighting for the last seat against Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Fein is doing a big push to get her elected.” The elephant in the room was the lack of reciprocal push from her own party. It is clear that there is goodwill in the constituency towards Mary Fitzpat

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HARRY McGEE, Political Correspondent CONSTITUENCY PROFILE DUBLIN CENTRAL IN THE 2007 general election, then taoiseach Bertie Ahern was elected on the first count with 12,734 votes, or almost 40 per cent of all votes cast in the constituency. So unassailable and powerful was Ahern that his preferred running mate Cyprian Brady was elected on his coat-tails – Brady’s 939 first preferences were by far the lowest of any TD elected in the country and left him in ninth place of 13 following the first count. In a week’s time the general election will prove how quickly such mighty empires – and Ahern’s Drumcondra constituency machine was the biggest of them all – can crumble when the political atmosphere changes. Fianna Fáil is in deep trouble in this constituency as it is in many others in the capital. If the party has a bad day, it could have only three TDs in Dublin. On a good day, it might win seven or eight. But the chances are that, even then, Dublin Central might not be one of them. The party’s strategy of running two candidates is questionable, especially as Brady and Councillor Mary Fitzpatrick do not get along at all.

The complexion of this constituency was further altered by the death of Independent deputy Tony Gregory. His director of elections for many years, Maureen O’Sullivan, won the subsequent byelection handsomely and is standing again as the “Gregory candidate”. In the June 2009 byelection, O’Sullivan took 7,639 votes, almost 27 per cent of the total. Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe won more than 22 per cent of the vote to come in at 6,439. Fianna Fáil – in the shape of Bertie Ahern’s brother Maurice – ended up a distant fifth with only 12 per cent or 3,483. That won’t be enough to get a Fianna Fáil TD in, even with four seats and a quota of 20 per cent.

Dublin Central is a predominantly working-class constituency, with some of its Dublin 1 heartland among the poorest communities in Ireland. However, there are substantial middle-class pockets such as Ahern’s bailiwick of Drumcondra and the area towards the Phoenix Park including Phibsboro, Glasnevin and Cabra. The two candidates who look certain to make it into the new Dáil are Labour’s Joe Costello and Fine Gael’s Donohoe. The Fine Gael candidate brought the party from a low base in 2002 to within touching distance of a seat nine years later. He has developed his profile in areas where he was not so well known, including the Docklands and East Wall. O’Sullivan, self-effacing and well liked, may struggle but the Gregory name – which still has purchase – and her reputation for integrity and hard work should be enough. The battle will be for the last seat.

It’s between Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald and Labour’s Áine Clancy. How tightly will Brady and Fitzgerald transfer to each other, given the tensions between them? Has McDonald overcome her “blow-in” status; can she attract more transfers than the trickle she received in 2007? She will be affected more than most by her former colleague Christy Burke, running as an Independent. He will take Sinn Féin votes in the inner city, not all of which will come back. Cieran Perry in Cabra will also affect her share of the vote, but is expected to transfer heavily. And then there is Áine Clancy.

She is Drumcondra born, but representing Cabra-Glasnevin. If Labour is to break through, it should be gunning for two seats here. She has been impressive but was a late entrant, which may count against her..

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So what difference does the failure of the star to show on Vincent Browne’s debate appear to have made? It seems that Enda’s imitation of Greta Garbo made absolutely no difference. The nation’s chattering classes may have obsessed over Kenny’s petulant decision to forego the dubious delights of a fire-side chat with Vincent. However, whilst the Sancerre-filled wine glasses may have been shaking in Sandymount, when it comes to the ground wars within our constituencies the whole flap has had a minimal impact. Instead, our polls show Fine Gael is very close to securing an overall majority. On one level we should not be too surprised. This, after all would not be the first election where a gaffe-prone figure who was none too good at the details and who was despised by the intelligentsia secured a shock victory. There are, of course, some who would say Mr Kenny isn’t even a Ronald Reagan for he does not possess the easy charisma of America’s cowboy president or the capacity to secure the affection of a nation.

The most intriguing feature of the polls continues to be the difference between FG’s national and local support. It could, however, be the case that Mr Kenny’s unpopularity means that voters are reluctant to commit to FG on a national level. In contrast the news for Fianna Fail within our polls is utterly bleak. Some titular chieftains such as Eamon O Cuiv and John O’Donoghue are surviving (and in truth the latter is only lingering) but to date the only bounce Micheal Martin has provided this party with is of the dead cat variety. When it comes to the valleys of despair FF is not alone for Labour is, on the evidence of these polls, now struggling to even reach the start of the Spring tide. The concern among Labour must now be that it will be relegated, in the critical last week of the campaign, to a reprise of the PDs’ role in 2002. Though the independent vote remains strong, the desire, however, of the nation to hold the hand of the matronly FG nurse means poor Sinn Fein is also flapping around like some dinosaur watching the tide disappear from view.

DUBLIN CENTRAL It is almost poignant to see the lesser beasts of prey fighting over the stricken carcass of the old Drumcondra mafia. However, life moves on and the one clear thing that we can say about this constituency is that it is still critical on a number of fronts. If FF is to be more than a commune of the living dead then Mary Fitzpatrick, the constituency’s anti-Bertie ‘independent’ FF candidate, must be elected for she is the future. Labour had, during the gusty days of the Gilmore gale, been targeting two seats while if FG’s revival in Dublin is the real deal then Pascal Donohoe is a must. The same also applies to SF’s Mary Lou McDonald if the party’s hopes of being a genuine force in the next Dail are to be realised for outside of Pearse Doherty, Mary Lou is as close to being an intellectual as SF has got.

Our Dublin Central poll contains good news for SF and FG but the story is mixed for Labour. The C2 classes of Dublin Central will never love Mary Lou but on this occasion there is a seat for her. The general swing to FG means the party is posed for a record vote in this traditionally hostile constituency. But while Joe Costello will be battling to top the poll he is performing rather too well for Labour’s good. Unless Costello can learn to share the vote this means his running mate Aine Clancy will struggle to win the final seat. The news, in contrast, might appear to be good for FF courtesy of Mary Fitzpatrick’s fourth-place position.

But though she will be a couple of thousand votes ahead of Labour there is a real possibility of a Cyprian Brady II-style reprise of the events of 2007 for while Fitzpatrick has twice as many votes as Clancy a huge weight of left-wing transfers means this will go to the wire. There will only be a couple of hundred votes in it but for now the prospect of a Fitzpatrick win and a FF come-back in the city is poor. DUBLIN SOUTH EAST FG has not won two seats here since the perfect era of Garret FitzGerald. In this auspicious election both Enda’s friend Lucinda Creighton and her running mate Eoghan Murphy will skate home.

They might i

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MICHAEL O’REGAN, Parliamentary Correspondent SINN FINSINN FIN would use 7 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund to generate jobs, party vice-president and Dublin Central candidate Mary Lou McDonald said yesterday. Announcing the partys 10-point plan for job-creation outside Leinster House, Ms McDonald said the proposals were fully costed, credible, and, if implemented, have the potential to create 160,000 jobs and many more training places. Voters could choose to have the pension reserve fund to be thrown into the black hole of toxic banks, or they can insist politicians use some of that investment fund to create jobs. She said the 7 billion would be spent over 3 years, with 2 billion invested in 2011. The plan envisaged 500 million being spent on the agri-food industry, establishing central hubs for small and medium-sized industries. She said 100 new primary healthcare centres would be built. There would also be a school-building and refurbishment programme, and 100 creches built.

The plan also proposes that the national broadband scheme be augmented to provide a fibre-optic island-wide network. Those starting businesses would be assisted, an export strategy introduced, jobs on public projects maximised and jobs created to assist those providing frontline services. Ms McDonald said, with almost 500,000 on the Live Register and some 100,000 people emigrating over the next two years, the big crisis related to jobs. There are many people who have no work, and believe they do not have the prospect of work. Ms McDonald said Sinn Fins approach was to move away from constant cutting and hacking at the system and into a new approach about building, growing and developing jobs and getting ourselves out of the hole we are in. Asked about the partys decline by three points to 12 per cent in yesterdays Irish Timesopinion poll, Ms McDonald said polls varied. We have set out our stall, and we are taking a very different view from the other political parties.

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HASTE TO THE WEDDING Toms Carthaighs withering assessment of the election so far – in verse. Includes choice lines like Fine Gael she is blushing as the pregnant bride/ Labour Party the groom to stand at her side/ The Sinn Fin as proud parents look on in pride/ Their day for the party they will not be denied. http//tinyurl.com/48dsqn2 UPSTART POSTER DAY A peek inside the weird and wonderful world of art collective upstart.ie, the group erecting alternative election posters across Dublin. One of the best bits is footage of John Gormley posing with them for photographs, before wondering aloud if the whole thing is a stitch-up. http//tinyurl.com/494vu5l Quote of the Day I love Vincent Brown – Fianna Fil leader Michel Martin reveals his true feelings for the TV3 presenter Poster Of The Day thank God Olearys Dead, Or This Would Have Killed Him. From the people behind upstart.ie Of bridges, banks and television We could prove a bridge-builder between Fine Gael and Labour in marrying inconsistencies between their economic policies if it was in a new rainbow coalition. – Dan Boyle, Green Party The banks must go to work for the negative equity generation. – Michael Noonan, Fine Gael If the Fine Gael leader cant cope with a robust television journalist, how can he ask the people to have faith in his ability to cope with a real crisis? – Barry Andrews, Fianna Fil . .